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Levski Lom vs Akademik Svishtov — Third League - Northwest 2018

Levski Lom
Levski Lom
FT
4 – 0
Akademik Svishtov
Akademik Svishtov
10/4/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 9Gradski Stadion Lom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Levski Lom75%
×Draw16%
Akademik Svishtov9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Lom
2.37
Akademik Svishtov
0.68

Levski Lom creates 249% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 104 away

creates per match

Levski Lom
3.06
Akademik Svishtov
1.19

allows per match

Levski Lom
0.18
Akademik Svishtov
1.68

finishing

Levski Lom+0.00on par
Akademik Svishtov+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Lom ↓

Akademik Svishtov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Levski Lom or draw
91%
Levski Lom or Akademik Svishtov
84%
Draw or Akademik Svishtov
25%

Winning margin

Levski Lom wins by 2+
52%
Akademik Svishtov wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Levski Lom 1+ goals
91%
Levski Lom 2+ goals
68%
Levski Lom 3+ goals
42%
Akademik Svishtov 1+ goals
49%
Akademik Svishtov 2+ goals
15%
Akademik Svishtov 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Levski Lom (draw refunded)
89%
Akademik Svishtov (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Lom at home — creates 3.06, concedes 0.18 · 17 matches

Akademik Svishtov away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.68 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Lom attack 3.06 + Akademik Svishtov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.37

Akademik Svishtov attack 1.19 + Levski Lom defence 0.18 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Levski Lom scores more
75%
level
16%
Akademik Svishtov scores more
9%

Levski Lom at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Levski Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Lom vs Akademik Svishtov

Levski Lom beat Akademik Svishtov 4-0 in Third League - Northwest on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion Lom in Lom.