Akademik Svishtov 0–1 Levski Lom: Result & Stats

Akademik Svishtov

FT

0 – 1

Levski Lom

4/11/2021

Third League - Northwest · North-West - 26Stadion Akademik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Akademik Svishtov32%

×Draw26%

Levski Lom42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Akademik SvishtovExpected goals in this matchLevski Lom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.46

Akademik Svishtov

1.23

Levski Lom

1.46

Levski Lom creates 19% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 17 away

1.98

creates per match

2.00

0.91

allows per match

0.47

creates per match

Akademik Svishtov

1.98

Levski Lom

2.00

allows per match

Akademik Svishtov

0.91

Levski Lom

0.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akademik Svishtov+0.00on par

Levski Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademik Svishtov ↓

Levski Lom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Akademik Svishtov or draw

58%

Akademik Svishtov or Levski Lom

74%

Draw or Levski Lom

68%

Winning margin

Akademik Svishtov wins by 2+

13%

Levski Lom wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Akademik Svishtov 1+ goals

71%

Akademik Svishtov 2+ goals

35%

Akademik Svishtov 3+ goals

13%

Levski Lom 1+ goals

77%

Levski Lom 2+ goals

43%

Levski Lom 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Akademik Svishtov (draw refunded)

43%

Levski Lom (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademik Svishtov at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.91 · 107 matches

Levski Lom away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademik Svishtov attack 1.98 + Levski Lom defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Levski Lom attack 2.00 + Akademik Svishtov defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Akademik Svishtov scores more

32%

level

26%

Levski Lom scores more

42%

Levski Lom at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Levski Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff