Levski Krumovgrad 3–0 Levski Karlovo

Levski Krumovgrad

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Levski Karlovo

3/26/2022

Third League - Southeast · South-East - 23Stadion Levski Krumovgrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Levski Krumovgrad82%

×Draw11%

Levski Karlovo7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski KrumovgradExpected goals in this matchLevski Karlovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.11

0.79

Levski Krumovgrad

3.11

Levski Karlovo

0.79

Levski Krumovgrad creates 294% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 136 away

4.00

creates per match

1.04

0.53

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Levski Krumovgrad

4.00

Levski Karlovo

1.04

allows per match

Levski Krumovgrad

0.53

Levski Karlovo

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Levski Karlovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Krumovgrad ↓

Levski Karlovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Levski Krumovgrad or draw

93%

Levski Krumovgrad or Levski Karlovo

89%

Draw or Levski Karlovo

18%

Winning margin

Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+

63%

Levski Karlovo wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals

95%

Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals

81%

Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals

58%

Levski Karlovo 1+ goals

55%

Levski Karlovo 2+ goals

19%

Levski Karlovo 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)

93%

Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Krumovgrad at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

Levski Karlovo away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.22 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Krumovgrad attack 4.00 + Levski Karlovo defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 3.11

Levski Karlovo attack 1.04 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Levski Krumovgrad scores more

82%

level

11%

Levski Karlovo scores more

7%

Levski Krumovgrad at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Levski Krumovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff