Levski Karlovo 0–2 Levski Krumovgrad

Levski Karlovo

FT

0 – 2

Levski Krumovgrad

9/11/2021

Third League - Southeast · South-East - 6Stadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Levski Karlovo19%

×Draw22%

Levski Krumovgrad58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski KarlovoExpected goals in this matchLevski Krumovgrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.86

Levski Karlovo

0.96

Levski Krumovgrad

1.86

Levski Krumovgrad creates 94% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 17 away

1.51

creates per match

2.59

1.13

allows per match

0.41

creates per match

Levski Karlovo

1.51

Levski Krumovgrad

2.59

allows per match

Levski Karlovo

1.13

Levski Krumovgrad

0.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levski Karlovo+0.00on par

Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Karlovo ↓

Levski Krumovgrad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Levski Karlovo or draw

42%

Levski Karlovo or Levski Krumovgrad

78%

Draw or Levski Krumovgrad

81%

Winning margin

Levski Karlovo wins by 2+

7%

Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Levski Karlovo 1+ goals

62%

Levski Karlovo 2+ goals

25%

Levski Karlovo 3+ goals

7%

Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals

84%

Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals

55%

Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)

25%

Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Karlovo at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Levski Krumovgrad away — creates 2.59, concedes 0.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Karlovo attack 1.51 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.96

Levski Krumovgrad attack 2.59 + Levski Karlovo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Levski Karlovo scores more

19%

level

22%

Levski Krumovgrad scores more

58%

Levski Krumovgrad at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Levski Krumovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff