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Levski Krumovgrad vs Gigant Saedinenie — Third League - Southeast 2018

Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
FT
3 – 0
Gigant Saedinenie
Gigant Saedinenie
11/22/2021Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 16Stadion Levski Krumovgrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Levski Krumovgrad76%
×Draw15%
Gigant Saedinenie9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Krumovgrad
2.71
Gigant Saedinenie
0.85

Levski Krumovgrad creates 219% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 136 away

creates per match

Levski Krumovgrad
4.00
Gigant Saedinenie
1.17

allows per match

Levski Krumovgrad
0.53
Gigant Saedinenie
1.42

finishing

Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par
Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Krumovgrad ↓

Gigant Saedinenie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Levski Krumovgrad or draw
91%
Levski Krumovgrad or Gigant Saedinenie
85%
Draw or Gigant Saedinenie
24%

Winning margin

Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
55%
Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
93%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
75%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
50%
Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals
57%
Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals
21%
Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
89%
Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Krumovgrad at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

Gigant Saedinenie away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.42 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Krumovgrad attack 4.00 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 2.71

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.17 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Levski Krumovgrad scores more
76%
level
15%
Gigant Saedinenie scores more
9%

Levski Krumovgrad at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Levski Krumovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Levski Krumovgrad 3–0 Gigant Saedinenie

Levski Krumovgrad beat Gigant Saedinenie 3-0 in Third League - Southeast on November 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Levski Krumovgrad in Krumovgrad.