Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gigant Saedinenie vs Levski Krumovgrad — Third League - Southeast 2018

Gigant Saedinenie
Gigant Saedinenie
FT
1 – 1
Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
5/21/2022Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 33Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gigant Saedinenie26%
×Draw24%
Levski Krumovgrad50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gigant Saedinenie
1.12
Levski Krumovgrad
1.67

Levski Krumovgrad creates 49% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 17 away

creates per match

Gigant Saedinenie
1.83
Levski Krumovgrad
2.59

allows per match

Gigant Saedinenie
0.74
Levski Krumovgrad
0.41

finishing

Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par
Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gigant Saedinenie ↓

Levski Krumovgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Gigant Saedinenie or draw
50%
Gigant Saedinenie or Levski Krumovgrad
76%
Draw or Levski Krumovgrad
74%

Winning margin

Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+
10%
Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals
67%
Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals
31%
Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals
10%
Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
81%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
50%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)
34%
Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gigant Saedinenie at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.74 · 135 matches

Levski Krumovgrad away — creates 2.59, concedes 0.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.83 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 1.12

Levski Krumovgrad attack 2.59 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gigant Saedinenie scores more
26%
level
24%
Levski Krumovgrad scores more
50%

Levski Krumovgrad at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Levski Krumovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Gigant Saedinenie 1–1 Levski Krumovgrad

Gigant Saedinenie and Levski Krumovgrad drew 1-1 in Third League - Southeast on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Saedinenie.