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Levski Krumovgrad vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas — Third League - Southeast 2018

Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
3/12/2022Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 21Stadion Levski Krumovgrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Levski Krumovgrad65%
×Draw18%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Krumovgrad
2.48
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.18

Levski Krumovgrad creates 110% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 99 away

creates per match

Levski Krumovgrad
4.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.82

allows per match

Levski Krumovgrad
0.53
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.95

finishing

Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Krumovgrad ↓

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Levski Krumovgrad or draw
83%
Levski Krumovgrad or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
82%
Draw or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
35%

Winning margin

Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
43%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
92%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
70%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
44%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals
69%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals
33%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
80%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Krumovgrad at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.95 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Krumovgrad attack 4.00 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 2.48

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 1.82 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Levski Krumovgrad scores more
65%
level
18%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more
17%

Levski Krumovgrad at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Levski Krumovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Levski Krumovgrad 4–0 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

Levski Krumovgrad beat Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 4-0 in Third League - Southeast on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Levski Krumovgrad in Krumovgrad.