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Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Levski Krumovgrad — Third League - Southeast 2018

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
FT
0 – 1
Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
8/28/2021Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 4Stadion Chernomorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas38%
×Draw24%
Levski Krumovgrad38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.58
Levski Krumovgrad
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 99 home / 17 away

creates per match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
2.75
Levski Krumovgrad
2.59

allows per match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.55
Levski Krumovgrad
0.41

finishing

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par
Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas ↓

Levski Krumovgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or draw
62%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or Levski Krumovgrad
76%
Draw or Levski Krumovgrad
62%

Winning margin

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+
19%
Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals
79%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals
47%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals
21%
Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
79%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
46%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)
50%
Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.55 · 99 matches

Levski Krumovgrad away — creates 2.59, concedes 0.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 2.75 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 1.58

Levski Krumovgrad attack 2.59 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more
38%
level
24%
Levski Krumovgrad scores more
38%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 0–1 Levski Krumovgrad

Levski Krumovgrad beat Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1-0 in Third League - Southeast on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Chernomorets in Burgas.