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Levski Krumovgrad vs Botev Vratsa — First League 2018

Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa
9/23/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 9Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Levski Krumovgrad48%
×Draw26%
Botev Vratsa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Krumovgrad
1.51
Botev Vratsa
1.03

Levski Krumovgrad creates 47% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 136 away

creates per match

Levski Krumovgrad
1.14
Botev Vratsa
0.93

allows per match

Levski Krumovgrad
1.14
Botev Vratsa
1.89

finishing

Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par
Botev Vratsa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Krumovgrad ↓

Botev Vratsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Levski Krumovgrad or draw
74%
Levski Krumovgrad or Botev Vratsa
74%
Draw or Botev Vratsa
52%

Winning margin

Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
24%
Botev Vratsa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
78%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
44%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
19%
Botev Vratsa 1+ goals
64%
Botev Vratsa 2+ goals
28%
Botev Vratsa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
65%
Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Krumovgrad at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 35 matches

Botev Vratsa away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.89 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Krumovgrad attack 1.14 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.51

Botev Vratsa attack 0.93 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Levski Krumovgrad scores more
48%
level
26%
Botev Vratsa scores more
26%

Levski Krumovgrad at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Levski Krumovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Krumovgrad vs Botev Vratsa

Levski Krumovgrad beat Botev Vratsa 3-0 in First League on September 23, 2024.

The match was played at Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex in Plovdiv.