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Botev Vratsa vs Levski Krumovgrad — First League 2018

Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
3/7/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 24Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Botev Vratsa43%
×Draw30%
Levski Krumovgrad28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Vratsa
1.20
Levski Krumovgrad
0.90

Botev Vratsa creates 33% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 37 away

creates per match

Botev Vratsa
1.04
Levski Krumovgrad
0.68

allows per match

Botev Vratsa
1.12
Levski Krumovgrad
1.35

finishing

Botev Vratsa+0.00on par
Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa ↓

Levski Krumovgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa or draw
72%
Botev Vratsa or Levski Krumovgrad
70%
Draw or Levski Krumovgrad
57%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa wins by 2+
19%
Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa 1+ goals
70%
Botev Vratsa 2+ goals
34%
Botev Vratsa 3+ goals
12%
Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
59%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
23%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)
61%
Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.12 · 139 matches

Levski Krumovgrad away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.35 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa attack 1.04 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.20

Levski Krumovgrad attack 0.68 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Botev Vratsa scores more
43%
level
30%
Levski Krumovgrad scores more
28%

Botev Vratsa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Botev Vratsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Vratsa vs Levski Krumovgrad

Botev Vratsa and Levski Krumovgrad drew 0-0 in First League on March 7, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Vratsa.