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Levski Krumovgrad vs Beroe II — Third League - Southeast 2018

Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
FT
4 – 1
Beroe II
Beroe II
12/3/2021Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 14Stadion Levski Krumovgrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Levski Krumovgrad87%
×Draw9%
Beroe II4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Krumovgrad
3.39
Beroe II
0.65

Levski Krumovgrad creates 422% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 55 away

creates per match

Levski Krumovgrad
4.00
Beroe II
0.76

allows per match

Levski Krumovgrad
0.53
Beroe II
2.78

finishing

Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par
Beroe II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Krumovgrad ↓

Beroe II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–17%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Levski Krumovgrad or draw
96%
Levski Krumovgrad or Beroe II
91%
Draw or Beroe II
13%

Winning margin

Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
71%
Beroe II wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
96%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
84%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
64%
Beroe II 1+ goals
48%
Beroe II 2+ goals
14%
Beroe II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
96%
Beroe II (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Krumovgrad at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

Beroe II away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Krumovgrad attack 4.00 + Beroe II defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 3.39

Beroe II attack 0.76 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Levski Krumovgrad scores more
87%
level
9%
Beroe II scores more
4%

Levski Krumovgrad at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Levski Krumovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Levski Krumovgrad 4 – 1 Beroe II

Levski Krumovgrad beat Beroe II 4-1 in Third League - Southeast on December 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Levski Krumovgrad in Krumovgrad.