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Beroe II vs Levski Krumovgrad — Third League - Southeast 2018

Beroe II
Beroe II
FT
1 – 5
Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
5/11/2022Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 31Stadion Beroe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Beroe II13%
×Draw19%
Levski Krumovgrad69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beroe II
0.81
Levski Krumovgrad
2.19

Levski Krumovgrad creates 170% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 17 away

creates per match

Beroe II
1.22
Levski Krumovgrad
2.59

allows per match

Beroe II
1.78
Levski Krumovgrad
0.41

finishing

Beroe II+0.00on par
Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beroe II ↓

Levski Krumovgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Beroe II or draw
31%
Beroe II or Levski Krumovgrad
81%
Draw or Levski Krumovgrad
87%

Winning margin

Beroe II wins by 2+
4%
Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Beroe II 1+ goals
56%
Beroe II 2+ goals
19%
Beroe II 3+ goals
5%
Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
89%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
64%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Beroe II (draw refunded)
15%
Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beroe II at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

Levski Krumovgrad away — creates 2.59, concedes 0.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beroe II attack 1.22 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.81

Levski Krumovgrad attack 2.59 + Beroe II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Beroe II scores more
13%
level
19%
Levski Krumovgrad scores more
69%

Levski Krumovgrad at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Levski Krumovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beroe II vs Levski Krumovgrad

Levski Krumovgrad beat Beroe II 5-1 in Third League - Southeast on May 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Beroe in Stara Zagora.