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Levski Krumovgrad vs Arda Kardzhali — First League 2018

Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
9/28/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 11Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Levski Krumovgrad38%
×Draw29%
Arda Kardzhali33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Krumovgrad
1.15
Arda Kardzhali
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 120 away

creates per match

Levski Krumovgrad
1.14
Arda Kardzhali
0.99

allows per match

Levski Krumovgrad
1.14
Arda Kardzhali
1.17

finishing

Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par
Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Krumovgrad ↓

Arda Kardzhali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Levski Krumovgrad or draw
67%
Levski Krumovgrad or Arda Kardzhali
71%
Draw or Arda Kardzhali
62%

Winning margin

Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
16%
Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
68%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
32%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
11%
Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
65%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
29%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
53%
Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Krumovgrad at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 35 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Krumovgrad attack 1.14 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Arda Kardzhali attack 0.99 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Levski Krumovgrad scores more
38%
level
29%
Arda Kardzhali scores more
33%

Levski Krumovgrad at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Levski Krumovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Levski Krumovgrad 1–3 Arda Kardzhali

Arda Kardzhali beat Levski Krumovgrad 3-1 in First League on September 28, 2023.

The match was played at Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex in Plovdiv.