Arda Kardzhali 1–1 Levski Krumovgrad

Arda Kardzhali

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Levski Krumovgrad

C. Offor 5'

V. Veliev 29'

3/29/2024

First League · Round 26Arena Arda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Arda Kardzhali49%

×Draw27%

Levski Krumovgrad24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arda KardzhaliExpected goals in this matchLevski Krumovgrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.90

Arda Kardzhali

1.40

Levski Krumovgrad

0.90

Arda Kardzhali creates 56% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 37 away

1.45

creates per match

0.68

1.11

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali

1.45

Levski Krumovgrad

0.68

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali

1.11

Levski Krumovgrad

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

Levski Krumovgrad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw

76%

Arda Kardzhali or Levski Krumovgrad

73%

Draw or Levski Krumovgrad

51%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+

24%

Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals

75%

Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals

41%

Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals

17%

Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals

59%

Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals

23%

Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)

67%

Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 119 matches

Levski Krumovgrad away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.35 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.45 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.40

Levski Krumovgrad attack 0.68 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more

49%

level

27%

Levski Krumovgrad scores more

24%

Arda Kardzhali at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

B. Tsonev

Arda Kardzhali · M

8.3

Match Events

5'

21'

29'

42'

46'

Patrick Luan← O. Yusein

64'

B. Tyutyukov← I. Kokonov

64'

Z. Pehlivanov← D. Tonev

72'

Lucas Santana Dos Santos

72'

I. Yurukov← I. Tilev

80'

T. Yordanov← S. Ivanov

81'

M. Tsvetanov← S. Yusein

86'

K. Vasilev← D. Ali

90+1'

Okezie Prince Ebenezer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArdaLevski

Overview

49%Possession51%

15Total Shots10

1.61Expected Goals (xG)0.60

4Corners2

7Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots10

6On Target4

5Off Target4

4Blocked2

10Inside Box4

5Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

368Total Passes325

297Accurate Passes239

81%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2