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Levski Karlovo vs Gigant Saedinenie — Third League - Southeast 2018

Levski Karlovo
Levski Karlovo
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Gigant Saedinenie
Gigant Saedinenie
3/2/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 22Stadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Levski Karlovo44%
×Draw26%
Gigant Saedinenie30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Karlovo
1.46
Gigant Saedinenie
1.15

Levski Karlovo creates 27% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 136 away

creates per match

Levski Karlovo
1.51
Gigant Saedinenie
1.17

allows per match

Levski Karlovo
1.13
Gigant Saedinenie
1.42

finishing

Levski Karlovo+0.00on par
Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Karlovo ↓

Gigant Saedinenie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Levski Karlovo or draw
70%
Levski Karlovo or Gigant Saedinenie
74%
Draw or Gigant Saedinenie
56%

Winning margin

Levski Karlovo wins by 2+
22%
Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Levski Karlovo 1+ goals
77%
Levski Karlovo 2+ goals
43%
Levski Karlovo 3+ goals
18%
Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals
68%
Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals
32%
Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)
60%
Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Karlovo at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Gigant Saedinenie away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.42 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Karlovo attack 1.51 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.17 + Levski Karlovo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Levski Karlovo scores more
44%
level
26%
Gigant Saedinenie scores more
30%

Levski Karlovo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Levski Karlovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Levski Karlovo 3–2 Gigant Saedinenie

Levski Karlovo beat Gigant Saedinenie 3-2 in Third League - Southeast on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Vasil Levski in Karlovo.