Gigant Saedinenie 1–0 Levski Karlovo

Gigant Saedinenie

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Levski Karlovo

9/13/2025

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 7Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Gigant Saedinenie64%

×Draw21%

Levski Karlovo16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gigant SaedinenieExpected goals in this matchLevski Karlovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

0.89

Gigant Saedinenie

2.03

Levski Karlovo

0.89

Gigant Saedinenie creates 128% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 136 away

1.83

creates per match

1.04

0.74

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Gigant Saedinenie

1.83

Levski Karlovo

1.04

allows per match

Gigant Saedinenie

0.74

Levski Karlovo

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par

Levski Karlovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gigant Saedinenie ↓

Levski Karlovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Gigant Saedinenie or draw

84%

Gigant Saedinenie or Levski Karlovo

79%

Draw or Levski Karlovo

36%

Winning margin

Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+

39%

Levski Karlovo wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals

87%

Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals

60%

Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals

33%

Levski Karlovo 1+ goals

59%

Levski Karlovo 2+ goals

22%

Levski Karlovo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)

80%

Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gigant Saedinenie at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.74 · 135 matches

Levski Karlovo away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.22 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.83 + Levski Karlovo defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.03

Levski Karlovo attack 1.04 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Gigant Saedinenie scores more

64%

level

21%

Levski Karlovo scores more

16%

Gigant Saedinenie at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Gigant Saedinenie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff