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Levski Karlovo vs FK Sliven — Third League - Southeast 2018

Levski Karlovo
Levski Karlovo
FT
1 – 0
FK Sliven
FK Sliven
11/5/2022Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 16Stadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Levski Karlovo72%
×Draw16%
FK Sliven12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Karlovo
2.71
FK Sliven
1.04

Levski Karlovo creates 161% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 38 away

creates per match

Levski Karlovo
1.51
FK Sliven
0.95

allows per match

Levski Karlovo
1.13
FK Sliven
3.92

finishing

Levski Karlovo+0.00on par
FK Sliven+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Karlovo ↓

FK Sliven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Levski Karlovo or draw
88%
Levski Karlovo or FK Sliven
84%
Draw or FK Sliven
28%

Winning margin

Levski Karlovo wins by 2+
51%
FK Sliven wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Levski Karlovo 1+ goals
93%
Levski Karlovo 2+ goals
75%
Levski Karlovo 3+ goals
50%
FK Sliven 1+ goals
65%
FK Sliven 2+ goals
28%
FK Sliven 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)
85%
FK Sliven (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Karlovo at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

FK Sliven away — creates 0.95, concedes 3.92 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Karlovo attack 1.51 + FK Sliven defence 3.92 → ÷2 → 2.71

FK Sliven attack 0.95 + Levski Karlovo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Levski Karlovo scores more
72%
level
16%
FK Sliven scores more
12%

Levski Karlovo at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Levski Karlovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Karlovo vs FK Sliven

Levski Karlovo beat FK Sliven 1-0 in Third League - Southeast on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Vasil Levski in Karlovo.