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FK Sliven vs Levski Karlovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

FK Sliven
FK Sliven
FT
5 – 2
Levski Karlovo
Levski Karlovo
5/25/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 37Stadion Hadzhi Dimitar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

FK Sliven49%
×Draw22%
Levski Karlovo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Sliven
1.95
Levski Karlovo
1.46

FK Sliven creates 34% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 136 away

creates per match

FK Sliven
1.68
Levski Karlovo
1.04

allows per match

FK Sliven
1.87
Levski Karlovo
2.22

finishing

FK Sliven+0.00on par
Levski Karlovo+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sliven ↓

Levski Karlovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

FK Sliven or draw
71%
FK Sliven or Levski Karlovo
78%
Draw or Levski Karlovo
51%

Winning margin

FK Sliven wins by 2+
28%
Levski Karlovo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FK Sliven 1+ goals
86%
FK Sliven 2+ goals
58%
FK Sliven 3+ goals
31%
Levski Karlovo 1+ goals
77%
Levski Karlovo 2+ goals
43%
Levski Karlovo 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FK Sliven (draw refunded)
63%
Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sliven at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.87 · 38 matches

Levski Karlovo away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.22 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sliven attack 1.68 + Levski Karlovo defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.95

Levski Karlovo attack 1.04 + FK Sliven defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FK Sliven scores more
49%
level
22%
Levski Karlovo scores more
29%

FK Sliven at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FK Sliven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: FK Sliven 5–2 Levski Karlovo

FK Sliven beat Levski Karlovo 5-2 in Third League - Southeast on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Hadzhi Dimitar in Sliven.