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Levski Karlovo vs Botev Plovdiv III — Third League - Southeast 2018

Levski Karlovo
Levski Karlovo
FT
0 – 5
Botev Plovdiv III
Botev Plovdiv III
3/1/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 22Stadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Levski Karlovo53%
×Draw23%
Botev Plovdiv III24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Karlovo
1.83
Botev Plovdiv III
1.15

Levski Karlovo creates 59% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 19 away

creates per match

Levski Karlovo
1.51
Botev Plovdiv III
1.16

allows per match

Levski Karlovo
1.13
Botev Plovdiv III
2.16

finishing

Levski Karlovo+0.00on par
Botev Plovdiv III+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Karlovo ↓

Botev Plovdiv III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Levski Karlovo or draw
76%
Levski Karlovo or Botev Plovdiv III
77%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv III
47%

Winning margin

Levski Karlovo wins by 2+
30%
Botev Plovdiv III wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Levski Karlovo 1+ goals
84%
Levski Karlovo 2+ goals
54%
Levski Karlovo 3+ goals
28%
Botev Plovdiv III 1+ goals
68%
Botev Plovdiv III 2+ goals
32%
Botev Plovdiv III 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)
69%
Botev Plovdiv III (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Karlovo at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Botev Plovdiv III away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Karlovo attack 1.51 + Botev Plovdiv III defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.83

Botev Plovdiv III attack 1.16 + Levski Karlovo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Levski Karlovo scores more
53%
level
23%
Botev Plovdiv III scores more
24%

Levski Karlovo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Levski Karlovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Levski Karlovo 0–5 Botev Plovdiv III

Botev Plovdiv III beat Levski Karlovo 5-0 in Third League - Southeast on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Vasil Levski in Karlovo.