Botev Plovdiv III 0–2 Levski Karlovo

Botev Plovdiv III

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Levski Karlovo

8/18/2024

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 3Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Botev Plovdiv III49%

×Draw24%

Levski Karlovo27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev Plovdiv IIIExpected goals in this matchLevski Karlovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.21

Botev Plovdiv III

1.72

Levski Karlovo

1.21

Botev Plovdiv III creates 42% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 136 away

1.21

creates per match

1.04

1.37

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv III

1.21

Levski Karlovo

1.04

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv III

1.37

Levski Karlovo

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Plovdiv III+0.00on par

Levski Karlovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv III ↓

Levski Karlovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv III or draw

73%

Botev Plovdiv III or Levski Karlovo

76%

Draw or Levski Karlovo

51%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv III wins by 2+

27%

Levski Karlovo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv III 1+ goals

82%

Botev Plovdiv III 2+ goals

51%

Botev Plovdiv III 3+ goals

25%

Levski Karlovo 1+ goals

70%

Levski Karlovo 2+ goals

34%

Levski Karlovo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv III (draw refunded)

65%

Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv III at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Levski Karlovo away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.22 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv III attack 1.21 + Levski Karlovo defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.72

Levski Karlovo attack 1.04 + Botev Plovdiv III defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Botev Plovdiv III scores more

49%

level

24%

Levski Karlovo scores more

27%

Botev Plovdiv III at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff