Levski Karlovo 4–0 Atletik Kuklen: Result & Stats

Levski Karlovo

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Atletik Kuklen

9/20/2025

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 8Stadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Levski Karlovo56%

×Draw23%

Atletik Kuklen21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski KarlovoExpected goals in this matchAtletik Kuklen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.06

Levski Karlovo

1.86

Atletik Kuklen

1.06

Levski Karlovo creates 75% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 135 away

1.51

creates per match

1.00

1.13

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Levski Karlovo

1.51

Atletik Kuklen

1.00

allows per match

Levski Karlovo

1.13

Atletik Kuklen

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levski Karlovo+0.00on par

Atletik Kuklen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Karlovo ↓

Atletik Kuklen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Levski Karlovo or draw

79%

Levski Karlovo or Atletik Kuklen

77%

Draw or Atletik Kuklen

44%

Winning margin

Levski Karlovo wins by 2+

32%

Atletik Kuklen wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Levski Karlovo 1+ goals

84%

Levski Karlovo 2+ goals

55%

Levski Karlovo 3+ goals

28%

Atletik Kuklen 1+ goals

65%

Atletik Kuklen 2+ goals

29%

Atletik Kuklen 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)

72%

Atletik Kuklen (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Karlovo at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Atletik Kuklen away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.21 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Karlovo attack 1.51 + Atletik Kuklen defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.86

Atletik Kuklen attack 1.00 + Levski Karlovo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Levski Karlovo scores more

56%

level

23%

Atletik Kuklen scores more

21%

Levski Karlovo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Levski Karlovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff