Atletik Kuklen 4–0 Levski Karlovo: Result & Stats

Atletik Kuklen

FT

4 – 0

Levski Karlovo

5/17/2025

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 36Stadion Kuklen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Atletik Kuklen54%

×Draw23%

Levski Karlovo23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletik KuklenExpected goals in this matchLevski Karlovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.13

Atletik Kuklen

1.84

Levski Karlovo

1.13

Atletik Kuklen creates 63% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 136 away

1.46

creates per match

1.04

1.21

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Atletik Kuklen

1.46

Levski Karlovo

1.04

allows per match

Atletik Kuklen

1.21

Levski Karlovo

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletik Kuklen+0.00on par

Levski Karlovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletik Kuklen ↓

Levski Karlovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Atletik Kuklen or draw

77%

Atletik Kuklen or Levski Karlovo

77%

Draw or Levski Karlovo

46%

Winning margin

Atletik Kuklen wins by 2+

30%

Levski Karlovo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Atletik Kuklen 1+ goals

84%

Atletik Kuklen 2+ goals

55%

Atletik Kuklen 3+ goals

28%

Levski Karlovo 1+ goals

68%

Levski Karlovo 2+ goals

31%

Levski Karlovo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Atletik Kuklen (draw refunded)

70%

Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletik Kuklen at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.21 · 136 matches

Levski Karlovo away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.22 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletik Kuklen attack 1.46 + Levski Karlovo defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.84

Levski Karlovo attack 1.04 + Atletik Kuklen defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atletik Kuklen scores more

54%

level

23%

Levski Karlovo scores more

23%

Atletik Kuklen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Atletik Kuklen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff