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Levski Karlovo vs Asenovets — Third League - Southeast 2018

Levski Karlovo
Levski Karlovo
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Asenovets
Asenovets
10/25/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 14Stadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Levski Karlovo59%
×Draw21%
Asenovets20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Karlovo
2.06
Asenovets
1.10

Levski Karlovo creates 87% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 109 away

creates per match

Levski Karlovo
1.51
Asenovets
1.07

allows per match

Levski Karlovo
1.13
Asenovets
2.61

finishing

Levski Karlovo+0.00on par
Asenovets+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Karlovo ↓

Asenovets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Levski Karlovo or draw
80%
Levski Karlovo or Asenovets
79%
Draw or Asenovets
41%

Winning margin

Levski Karlovo wins by 2+
36%
Asenovets wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Levski Karlovo 1+ goals
87%
Levski Karlovo 2+ goals
61%
Levski Karlovo 3+ goals
34%
Asenovets 1+ goals
67%
Asenovets 2+ goals
30%
Asenovets 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)
75%
Asenovets (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Karlovo at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Asenovets away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.61 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Karlovo attack 1.51 + Asenovets defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.06

Asenovets attack 1.07 + Levski Karlovo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Levski Karlovo scores more
59%
level
21%
Asenovets scores more
20%

Levski Karlovo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Levski Karlovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Karlovo vs Asenovets

Levski Karlovo beat Asenovets 4-1 in Third League - Southeast on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Vasil Levski in Karlovo.