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Asenovets vs Levski Karlovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Asenovets
Asenovets
FT
3 – 1
Levski Karlovo
Levski Karlovo
3/16/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 24Stadion Shipka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Asenovets54%
×Draw22%
Levski Karlovo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asenovets
1.92
Levski Karlovo
1.22

Asenovets creates 57% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 136 away

creates per match

Asenovets
1.61
Levski Karlovo
1.04

allows per match

Asenovets
1.40
Levski Karlovo
2.22

finishing

Asenovets+0.00on par
Levski Karlovo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asenovets ↓

Levski Karlovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Asenovets or draw
76%
Asenovets or Levski Karlovo
78%
Draw or Levski Karlovo
46%

Winning margin

Asenovets wins by 2+
31%
Levski Karlovo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Asenovets 1+ goals
85%
Asenovets 2+ goals
57%
Asenovets 3+ goals
30%
Levski Karlovo 1+ goals
70%
Levski Karlovo 2+ goals
34%
Levski Karlovo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Asenovets (draw refunded)
69%
Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asenovets at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.40 · 109 matches

Levski Karlovo away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.22 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asenovets attack 1.61 + Levski Karlovo defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.92

Levski Karlovo attack 1.04 + Asenovets defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Asenovets scores more
54%
level
22%
Levski Karlovo scores more
24%

Asenovets at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Asenovets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Asenovets vs Levski Karlovo

Asenovets beat Levski Karlovo 3-1 in Third League - Southeast on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Shipka in Asenovgrad.