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Levski Chepintsi vs Chavdar Etropole — Third League - Southwest 2018

Levski Chepintsi
Levski Chepintsi
FT
0 – 2
Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
11/7/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 14Stadion Chepintsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Levski Chepintsi24%
×Draw24%
Chavdar Etropole52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Chepintsi
1.08
Chavdar Etropole
1.71

Chavdar Etropole creates 58% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 87 away

creates per match

Levski Chepintsi
0.81
Chavdar Etropole
1.55

allows per match

Levski Chepintsi
1.86
Chavdar Etropole
1.34

finishing

Levski Chepintsi+0.00on par
Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Chepintsi ↓

Chavdar Etropole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Levski Chepintsi or draw
48%
Levski Chepintsi or Chavdar Etropole
76%
Draw or Chavdar Etropole
76%

Winning margin

Levski Chepintsi wins by 2+
9%
Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Levski Chepintsi 1+ goals
66%
Levski Chepintsi 2+ goals
29%
Levski Chepintsi 3+ goals
10%
Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
82%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
51%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Levski Chepintsi (draw refunded)
32%
Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Chepintsi at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.86 · 36 matches

Chavdar Etropole away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.34 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Chepintsi attack 0.81 + Chavdar Etropole defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.08

Chavdar Etropole attack 1.55 + Levski Chepintsi defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Levski Chepintsi scores more
24%
level
24%
Chavdar Etropole scores more
52%

Chavdar Etropole at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Chepintsi vs Chavdar Etropole

Chavdar Etropole beat Levski Chepintsi 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Chepintsi in Chepintsi.