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Chavdar Etropole vs Levski Chepintsi — Third League - Southwest 2018

Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
FT
6 – 1
Levski Chepintsi
Levski Chepintsi
5/12/2021Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 31Stadion Chavdar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Chavdar Etropole81%
×Draw12%
Levski Chepintsi6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chavdar Etropole
2.93
Levski Chepintsi
0.72

Chavdar Etropole creates 307% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 36 away

creates per match

Chavdar Etropole
2.08
Levski Chepintsi
0.61

allows per match

Chavdar Etropole
0.84
Levski Chepintsi
3.78

finishing

Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par
Levski Chepintsi+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chavdar Etropole ↓

Levski Chepintsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Chavdar Etropole or draw
94%
Chavdar Etropole or Levski Chepintsi
88%
Draw or Levski Chepintsi
19%

Winning margin

Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
62%
Levski Chepintsi wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
94%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
78%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
55%
Levski Chepintsi 1+ goals
51%
Levski Chepintsi 2+ goals
16%
Levski Chepintsi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
93%
Levski Chepintsi (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chavdar Etropole at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.84 · 87 matches

Levski Chepintsi away — creates 0.61, concedes 3.78 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chavdar Etropole attack 2.08 + Levski Chepintsi defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.93

Levski Chepintsi attack 0.61 + Chavdar Etropole defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Chavdar Etropole scores more
81%
level
12%
Levski Chepintsi scores more
6%

Chavdar Etropole at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chavdar Etropole vs Levski Chepintsi

Chavdar Etropole beat Levski Chepintsi 6-1 in Third League - Southwest on May 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Chavdar in Etropole.