Levski Chepintsi 1–0 Bansko: Result & Stats

Levski Chepintsi

FT

1 – 0

Bansko

11/21/2020

Third League - Southwest · South-West - 16Stadion Chepintsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Levski Chepintsi29%

×Draw27%

Bansko45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski ChepintsiExpected goals in this matchBansko

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.42

Levski Chepintsi

1.08

Bansko

1.42

Bansko creates 31% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 129 away

0.81

creates per match

0.98

1.86

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Levski Chepintsi

0.81

Bansko

0.98

allows per match

Levski Chepintsi

1.86

Bansko

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levski Chepintsi+0.00on par

Bansko+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Chepintsi ↓

Bansko →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Levski Chepintsi or draw

55%

Levski Chepintsi or Bansko

73%

Draw or Bansko

71%

Winning margin

Levski Chepintsi wins by 2+

11%

Bansko wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Levski Chepintsi 1+ goals

66%

Levski Chepintsi 2+ goals

29%

Levski Chepintsi 3+ goals

10%

Bansko 1+ goals

76%

Bansko 2+ goals

41%

Bansko 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Levski Chepintsi (draw refunded)

39%

Bansko (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Chepintsi at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.86 · 36 matches

Bansko away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.36 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Chepintsi attack 0.81 + Bansko defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.08

Bansko attack 0.98 + Levski Chepintsi defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Levski Chepintsi scores more

29%

level

27%

Bansko scores more

45%

Bansko at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bansko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff