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Bansko vs Levski Chepintsi — Third League - Southwest 2018

Bansko
Bansko
FT
4 – 1
Levski Chepintsi
Levski Chepintsi
5/22/2021Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 33Stadion Sveti Petar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Bansko77%
×Draw14%
Levski Chepintsi9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bansko
2.70
Levski Chepintsi
0.79

Bansko creates 242% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 36 away

creates per match

Bansko
1.62
Levski Chepintsi
0.61

allows per match

Bansko
0.98
Levski Chepintsi
3.78

finishing

Bansko+0.00on par
Levski Chepintsi+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bansko ↓

Levski Chepintsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Bansko or draw
91%
Bansko or Levski Chepintsi
86%
Draw or Levski Chepintsi
23%

Winning margin

Bansko wins by 2+
56%
Levski Chepintsi wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Bansko 1+ goals
93%
Bansko 2+ goals
75%
Bansko 3+ goals
50%
Levski Chepintsi 1+ goals
55%
Levski Chepintsi 2+ goals
19%
Levski Chepintsi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bansko (draw refunded)
90%
Levski Chepintsi (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bansko at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.98 · 131 matches

Levski Chepintsi away — creates 0.61, concedes 3.78 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bansko attack 1.62 + Levski Chepintsi defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.70

Levski Chepintsi attack 0.61 + Bansko defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Bansko scores more
77%
level
14%
Levski Chepintsi scores more
9%

Bansko at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Bansko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bansko 4 – 1 Levski Chepintsi

Bansko beat Levski Chepintsi 4-1 in Third League - Southwest on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Sveti Petar in Bansko.