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Levico vs Legnago Salus — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Levico
Levico
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Legnago Salus
Legnago Salus
12/21/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 17Campo Sportivo Comunale Lavis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Levico29%
×Draw28%
Legnago Salus43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levico
1.02
Legnago Salus
1.32

Legnago Salus creates 29% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 48 away

creates per match

Levico
0.88
Legnago Salus
1.79

allows per match

Levico
0.85
Legnago Salus
1.17

finishing

Levico+0.00on par
Legnago Salus+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levico ↓

Legnago Salus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Levico or draw
57%
Levico or Legnago Salus
72%
Draw or Legnago Salus
71%

Winning margin

Levico wins by 2+
11%
Legnago Salus wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Levico 1+ goals
64%
Levico 2+ goals
27%
Levico 3+ goals
8%
Legnago Salus 1+ goals
73%
Legnago Salus 2+ goals
38%
Legnago Salus 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Levico (draw refunded)
40%
Legnago Salus (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levico at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

Legnago Salus away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levico attack 0.88 + Legnago Salus defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Legnago Salus attack 1.79 + Levico defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Levico scores more
29%
level
28%
Legnago Salus scores more
43%

Legnago Salus at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Legnago Salus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levico vs Legnago Salus

Levico and Legnago Salus drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone C on December 21, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Lavis in Lavis.