Legnago Salus 2–2 Levico: Result & Stats

Legnago Salus

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Levico

A. Gatto 81'

M. Baradji 2'

L. Moraschi 90+4'

M. Ongaro 80'

5/7/2023

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 34Stadio Mario Sandrini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Legnago Salus54%

×Draw26%

Levico20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legnago SalusExpected goals in this matchLevico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.78

Legnago Salus

1.48

Levico

0.78

Legnago Salus creates 90% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 34 away

1.44

creates per match

0.71

0.86

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Legnago Salus

1.44

Levico

0.71

allows per match

Legnago Salus

0.86

Levico

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legnago Salus+0.00on par

Levico+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legnago Salus ↓

Levico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Legnago Salus or draw

80%

Legnago Salus or Levico

74%

Draw or Levico

46%

Winning margin

Legnago Salus wins by 2+

28%

Levico wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Legnago Salus 1+ goals

77%

Legnago Salus 2+ goals

43%

Legnago Salus 3+ goals

19%

Levico 1+ goals

54%

Levico 2+ goals

18%

Levico 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Legnago Salus (draw refunded)

73%

Levico (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legnago Salus at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.86 · 50 matches

Levico away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legnago Salus attack 1.44 + Levico defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.48

Levico attack 0.71 + Legnago Salus defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Legnago Salus scores more

54%

level

26%

Levico scores more

20%

Legnago Salus at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Legnago Salus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

M. Baradji

80'

M. Ongaro

81'

A. Gatto

90+4'

L. Moraschi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff