Levante 2–1 Leganes: Result & Stats

Levante

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Leganes

M. Bouldini 83'

Pablo Martínez 65'

Dani Raba 75'

10/16/2022

Segunda División · Round 11Estadio Ciudad de Valencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Levante45%

×Draw28%

Leganes27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LevanteExpected goals in this matchLeganes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.94

Levante

1.32

Leganes

0.94

Levante creates 40% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 106 away

1.55

creates per match

0.97

0.90

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Levante

1.55

Leganes

0.97

allows per match

Levante

0.90

Leganes

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levante+0.00on par

Leganes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante ↓

Leganes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Levante or draw

73%

Levante or Leganes

72%

Draw or Leganes

55%

Winning margin

Levante wins by 2+

21%

Leganes wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Levante 1+ goals

73%

Levante 2+ goals

38%

Levante 3+ goals

15%

Leganes 1+ goals

61%

Leganes 2+ goals

24%

Leganes 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Levante (draw refunded)

63%

Leganes (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levante at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.90 · 67 matches

Leganes away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.09 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levante attack 1.55 + Leganes defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.32

Leganes attack 0.97 + Levante defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Levante scores more

45%

level

28%

Leganes scores more

27%

Levante at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Levante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Miramón

Leganes · D

7.5

Match Events

5'

12'

21'

45+3'

46'

Róber Pier← M. Saracchi

56'

Fede Vico← S. Cissé

57'

Rubén Pardo← Juan Muñoz

58'

Mohamed Bouldini

64'

Pablo Martínez← Iborra

65'

Pablo Martínez

71'

Pepelu

71'

Dani Raba← Josema Sánchez

71'

Y. Qasmi← G. Shibasaki

75'

Dani Raba↳ Rubén Pardo

76'

Brugui← Rober Ibáñez

76'

Son← Marc Pubill

83'

M. Bouldini

88'

Postigo← Rúben Vezo

90'

Joni Montiel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LevanteLeganes

Overview

55%Possession45%

15Total Shots10

2Corners4

17Fouls17

Shots

15Total Shots10

6On Target4

4Off Target4

5Blocked2

5Inside Box7

10Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

440Total Passes359

377Accurate Passes270

86%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls17

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2