Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Leganes vs Levante — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Leganes
Leganes
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Levante
Levante
D. Garcia Campos 49', 11'
8/5/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Estadio Municipal de Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Leganes48%
×Draw29%
Levante23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leganes
1.29
Levante
0.79

Leganes creates 63% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Leganes
1.25
Levante
0.83

allows per match

Leganes
0.75
Levante
1.33

finishing

Leganes+0.00on par
Levante+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leganes ↓

Levante →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Leganes or draw
77%
Leganes or Levante
71%
Draw or Levante
52%

Winning margin

Leganes wins by 2+
22%
Levante wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Leganes 1+ goals
72%
Leganes 2+ goals
37%
Leganes 3+ goals
14%
Levante 1+ goals
55%
Levante 2+ goals
19%
Levante 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Leganes (draw refunded)
68%
Levante (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leganes at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Levante away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leganes attack 1.25 + Levante defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Levante attack 0.83 + Leganes defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Leganes scores more
48%
level
29%
Levante scores more
23%

Leganes at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Leganes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
D. Garcia Campos
49'
D. Garcia Campos

Statistics

LeganesLevante
Overview
3Corners3
Discipline
1Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: Leganes vs Levante

Leganes beat Levante 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on August 5, 2023.

Goals: D. Garcia Campos (11', 49').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Butarque in Leganés.