Levante 2–0 Alcorcon: Result & Stats

Levante

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Alcorcon

Roger Martí 43', 7'

8/28/2016

Segunda División · Round 2Ciutat de València

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Levante50%

×Draw27%

Alcorcon23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LevanteExpected goals in this matchAlcorcon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.90

Levante

1.45

Alcorcon

0.90

Levante creates 61% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 106 away

1.56

creates per match

0.89

0.91

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Levante

1.56

Alcorcon

0.89

allows per match

Levante

0.91

Alcorcon

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levante+0.00on par

Alcorcon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante ↓

Alcorcon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Levante or draw

77%

Levante or Alcorcon

73%

Draw or Alcorcon

50%

Winning margin

Levante wins by 2+

25%

Alcorcon wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Levante 1+ goals

77%

Levante 2+ goals

42%

Levante 3+ goals

18%

Alcorcon 1+ goals

59%

Alcorcon 2+ goals

23%

Alcorcon 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Levante (draw refunded)

68%

Alcorcon (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levante at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.91 · 66 matches

Alcorcon away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.34 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levante attack 1.56 + Alcorcon defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.45

Alcorcon attack 0.89 + Levante defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Levante scores more

50%

level

27%

Alcorcon scores more

23%

Levante at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Levante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Roger Martí

Levante · F

8.2

Match Events

7'

11'

37'

41'

43'

46'

Samu← Ivi

46'

Álvaro Giménez← M. Luque

60'

Víctor Pérez← Manuel Sánchez

66'

Verza← Campaña

69'

Sergio Aguza

72'

Rubén García← Jason

82'

Iván González

86'

Paco Montañés← José Luis Morales

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LevanteAlcorcon

Overview

58%Possession42%

13Total Shots5

8Corners2

20Fouls21

Shots

13Total Shots5

4On Target1

5Off Target3

4Blocked1

6Inside Box1

7Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

461Total Passes337

381Accurate Passes257

83%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

20Fouls21

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1