Alcorcon 0–2 Levante: Result & Stats

Alcorcon

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Levante

Brugui 80'

Oriol Rey 36'

9/16/2023

Segunda División · Round 6Estadio Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Alcorcon30%

×Draw31%

Levante39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlcorconExpected goals in this matchLevante

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.08

Alcorcon

0.91

Levante

1.08

Levante creates 19% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 65 away

0.90

creates per match

1.06

1.10

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Alcorcon

0.90

Levante

1.06

allows per match

Alcorcon

1.10

Levante

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alcorcon+0.00on par

Levante+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcon ↓

Levante →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Alcorcon or draw

61%

Alcorcon or Levante

69%

Draw or Levante

70%

Winning margin

Alcorcon wins by 2+

11%

Levante wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Alcorcon 1+ goals

60%

Alcorcon 2+ goals

23%

Alcorcon 3+ goals

6%

Levante 1+ goals

66%

Levante 2+ goals

29%

Levante 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Alcorcon (draw refunded)

44%

Levante (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcon at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 105 matches

Levante away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.91 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcon attack 0.90 + Levante defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.91

Levante attack 1.06 + Alcorcon defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Alcorcon scores more

30%

level

31%

Levante scores more

39%

Levante at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Levante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Sergio Lozano

Levante · M

8.9

Match Events

15'

29'

29'

36'

44'

46'

Víctor García← David Morillas

48'

49'

50'

52'

58'

Óscar Clemente← Dani Gómez

58'

Brugui← Cantero

59'

Óscar Rivas

62'

Álex López← Óscar Rivas

69'

Jacobo González← Chiki

69'

Dela← Postigo

80'

Brugui↳ Sergio Lozano

83'

Koldo Obieta← Chema Rodríguez

83'

Javi Lara← Pedro Mosquera

87'

G. Kochorashvili← Sergio Lozano

87'

Carlos Álvarez← Andrés García

90'

Jacobo González

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlcorconLevante

Overview

29%Possession71%

10Total Shots21

3Corners6

10Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots21

1On Target5

7Off Target10

2Blocked6

6Inside Box6

4Outside Box15

Passing

29%Possession71%

246Total Passes624

184Accurate Passes567

75%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls16

6Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Alcorcon vs Levante

Levante beat Alcorcon 2-0 in Segunda División on September 16, 2023.

Goals: Oriol Rey (36'), Brugui (80').

Levante controlled possession (71%) and registered 21 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Santo Domingo in Alcorcón.

Alcorcon vs Levante — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Alcorcon vs Levante