Levante II 1–0 Elche II: Result & Stats

Levante II

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Elche II

Andrés García 79'

11/6/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 9Ciudad Deportiva de Buñol - Campo 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Levante II40%

×Draw29%

Elche II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levante IIExpected goals in this matchElche II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.00

Levante II

1.17

Elche II

1.00

Levante II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 77 away

1.32

creates per match

1.25

0.76

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Levante II

1.32

Elche II

1.25

allows per match

Levante II

0.76

Elche II

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levante II+0.00on par

Elche II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante II ↓

Elche II →

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Levante II or draw

69%

Levante II or Elche II

71%

Draw or Elche II

60%

Winning margin

Levante II wins by 2+

17%

Elche II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Levante II 1+ goals

69%

Levante II 2+ goals

33%

Levante II 3+ goals

11%

Elche II 1+ goals

63%

Elche II 2+ goals

26%

Elche II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Levante II (draw refunded)

56%

Elche II (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Levante II at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.76 · 68 matches

Elche II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.01 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Levante II attack 1.32 + Elche II defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.17

Elche II attack 1.25 + Levante II defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Levante II scores more

40%

level

29%

Elche II scores more

31%

Levante II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Levante II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

Alejandro Díaz← Javier Pamies

36'

Juan Pedro← Jesús López

46'

Sergio Galindo← B. Knežević

62'

Ruben Catala← Rodri

62'

Joel Febas← Álex Cerdá

70'

Pablo Serafín← Ferrán Sarsanedas

70'

M. Cocca← Javi Gómez

79'

Andrés García

80'

Juanmi← Andrés García

80'

C. Bekkouche← Cambra

86'

Joan Gallego← Hugo Redón

Levante

Elche

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

García

Manager: Chema Sanz

62'▲Ruben Catala←▼Rodri

62'▲Joel Febas←▼Álex Cerdá

80'▲Juanmi←▼Andrés García

80'▲C. Bekkouche←▼Cambra

86'▲Joan Gallego←▼Hugo Redón

Levante II substitutes

CatalaFebasJuanmiBekkoucheGallego

Manager: Alberto Gallego

28'▲Alejandro Díaz←▼Javier Pamies

36'▲Juan Pedro←▼Jesús López

46'▲Sergio Galindo←▼B. Knežević

70'▲Pablo Serafín←▼Ferrán Sarsanedas

70'▲M. Cocca←▼Javi Gómez

Elche II substitutes

DíazPedroGalindoSerafínCocca

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Levante II 1–0 Elche II

Levante II beat Elche II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 6, 2022.

Goals: Andrés García (79').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Buñol - Campo 4 in Buñol.

Levante II vs Elche II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Levante II 1–0 Elche II