Elche II 2–1 Levante II: Result & Stats

Elche II

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Levante II

Pablo Serafín 57'

Ferrán Sarsanedas 37'

Álex Cerdá 68'

3/12/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 24Campo Diego Quiles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Elche II46%

×Draw28%

Levante II26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Elche IIExpected goals in this matchLevante II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.92

Elche II

1.34

Levante II

0.92

Elche II creates 46% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 68 away

1.65

creates per match

1.12

0.72

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Elche II

1.65

Levante II

1.12

allows per match

Elche II

0.72

Levante II

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elche II+0.00on par

Levante II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche II ↓

Levante II →

0–010%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Elche II or draw

74%

Elche II or Levante II

72%

Draw or Levante II

54%

Winning margin

Elche II wins by 2+

22%

Levante II wins by 2+

Team goals

Elche II 1+ goals

74%

Elche II 2+ goals

39%

Elche II 3+ goals

15%

Levante II 1+ goals

60%

Levante II 2+ goals

23%

Levante II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Elche II (draw refunded)

64%

Levante II (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Elche II at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.72 · 75 matches

Levante II away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.03 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Elche II attack 1.65 + Levante II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.34

Levante II attack 1.12 + Elche II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Elche II scores more

46%

level

28%

Levante II scores more

26%

Elche II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Elche II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

Ferrán Sarsanedas

57'

Pablo Serafín

58'

Caño← Avelino

58'

Álex Cerdá← Hugo Redón

58'

Andrés García← Alyson

68'

Álex Cerdá

73'

Cambra← Jordi Ferrer

73'

Edgar Alcañiz← Joan Gallego

74'

Pipa← M. Cocca

74'

Adrián González← Ferrán Sarsanedas

74'

J. Hernández← Alejandro Pérez

81'

Pablo García← B. Knežević

85'

Pieter Emonds← C. Bekkouche

Elche

Levante

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Carlos Geraldo

58'▲Caño←▼Avelino

74'▲Pipa←▼M. Cocca

74'▲Adrián González←▼Ferrán Sarsanedas

74'▲J. Hernández←▼Alejandro Pérez

81'▲Pablo García←▼B. Knežević

Elche II substitutes

CañoPipaGonzálezHernándezGarcía

Manager: Chema Sanz

58'▲Álex Cerdá←▼Hugo Redón

58'▲Andrés García←▼Alyson

73'▲Cambra←▼Jordi Ferrer

73'▲Edgar Alcañiz←▼Joan Gallego

85'▲Pieter Emonds←▼C. Bekkouche

Levante II substitutes

CerdáGarcíaCambraAlcañizEmonds

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Elche II 2–1 Levante II

Elche II beat Levante II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on March 12, 2023.

Goals: Ferrán Sarsanedas (37'), Pablo Serafín (57'), Álex Cerdá (68').

The match was played at Campo Diego Quiles in Elx.

Elche II vs Levante II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Elche II 2–1 Levante II