Levante II 0–1 Burriana: Result & Stats

Levante II

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Burriana

3/6/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 22Ciudad Deportiva de Buñol Hierba Artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Levante II57%

×Draw26%

Burriana16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levante IIExpected goals in this matchBurriana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.65

Levante II

1.48

Burriana

0.65

Levante II creates 128% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

1.32

creates per match

0.53

0.76

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Levante II

1.32

Burriana

0.53

allows per match

Levante II

0.76

Burriana

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levante II+0.00on par

Burriana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante II ↓

Burriana →

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–018%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Levante II or draw

84%

Levante II or Burriana

74%

Draw or Burriana

43%

Winning margin

Levante II wins by 2+

30%

Burriana wins by 2+

Team goals

Levante II 1+ goals

77%

Levante II 2+ goals

43%

Levante II 3+ goals

19%

Burriana 1+ goals

48%

Burriana 2+ goals

14%

Burriana 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Levante II (draw refunded)

78%

Burriana (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Levante II at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.76 · 68 matches

Burriana away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Levante II attack 1.32 + Burriana defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.48

Burriana attack 0.53 + Levante II defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Levante II scores more

57%

level

26%

Burriana scores more

16%

Levante II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Levante II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff