Burriana 3–0 Levante II: Result & Stats

Burriana

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Levante II

10/7/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 5Camp de Futbol Joan B. Planelles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Burriana33%

×Draw30%

Levante II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurrianaExpected goals in this matchLevante II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.09

Burriana

1.02

Levante II

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

1.00

creates per match

1.12

1.06

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Burriana

1.00

Levante II

1.12

allows per match

Burriana

1.06

Levante II

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burriana+0.00on par

Levante II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burriana ↓

Levante II →

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Burriana or draw

63%

Burriana or Levante II

70%

Draw or Levante II

67%

Winning margin

Burriana wins by 2+

13%

Levante II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Burriana 1+ goals

64%

Burriana 2+ goals

27%

Burriana 3+ goals

Levante II 1+ goals

66%

Levante II 2+ goals

30%

Levante II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Burriana (draw refunded)

47%

Levante II (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Burriana at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Levante II away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.03 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Burriana attack 1.00 + Levante II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Levante II attack 1.12 + Burriana defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Burriana scores more

33%

level

30%

Levante II scores more

37%

Levante II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Levante II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff