Levadiakos 2–3 PAOK: Result & Stats

Levadiakos

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

PAOK

B. Verbic 50'

I. Kosti 10'

G. Giakoumakis 90'

M. Ozdoev 55', 45'

11/30/2025

Super League 1 · Round 12Levadia Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Levadiakos31%

×Draw25%

PAOK44%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LevadiakosExpected goals in this matchPAOK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.50

Levadiakos

1.22

PAOK

1.50

PAOK creates 23% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 134 away

1.41

creates per match

1.72

1.28

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Levadiakos

1.41

PAOK

1.72

allows per match

Levadiakos

1.28

PAOK

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levadiakos+0.00on par

PAOK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levadiakos ↓

PAOK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Levadiakos or draw

56%

Levadiakos or PAOK

75%

Draw or PAOK

69%

Winning margin

Levadiakos wins by 2+

13%

PAOK wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Levadiakos 1+ goals

70%

Levadiakos 2+ goals

34%

Levadiakos 3+ goals

12%

PAOK 1+ goals

78%

PAOK 2+ goals

44%

PAOK 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Levadiakos (draw refunded)

41%

PAOK (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levadiakos at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.28 · 64 matches

PAOK away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.03 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levadiakos attack 1.41 + PAOK defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.22

PAOK attack 1.72 + Levadiakos defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Levadiakos scores more

31%

level

25%

PAOK scores more

44%

PAOK at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "PAOK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

I. Kosti

Levadiakos · M

8.2

Match Events

10'

I. Kosti

30'

Tomasz Kędziora

45'

M. Ozdoev↳ L. Ivanusec

50'

B. Verbic↳ S. Palacios

55'

M. Ozdoev↳ D. Lovren

60'

A. R. Baba← G. Taylor

61'

G. Michailidis← T. Kedziora

61'

K. Despodov← L. Ivanusec

66'

A. Tshibola← G. Balzi

73'

77'

77'

79'

83'

F. Pedrozo← B. Verbic

83'

M. Camara←

90+2'

G. Manthatis← I. Kosti

90'

G. Giakoumakis↳ Taison

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LevadiakosPAOK

Overview

42%Possession58%

13Total Shots14

2Corners5

14Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots14

5On Target6

3Off Target6

5Blocked2

7Inside Box10

6Outside Box4

Passing

42%Possession58%

325Total Passes451

239Accurate Passes352

74%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls14

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

6Offsides2