Levadiakos 0–2 PAOK: Result & Stats

Levadiakos

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

PAOK

S. Schwab 90+2' (pen)

M. Camara 86'

10/6/2024

Super League 1 · Round 7Stadio Levadias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Levadiakos31%

×Draw25%

PAOK44%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LevadiakosExpected goals in this matchPAOK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.50

Levadiakos

1.22

PAOK

1.50

PAOK creates 23% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 134 away

1.41

creates per match

1.72

1.28

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Levadiakos

1.41

PAOK

1.72

allows per match

Levadiakos

1.28

PAOK

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levadiakos+0.00on par

PAOK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levadiakos ↓

PAOK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Levadiakos or draw

56%

Levadiakos or PAOK

75%

Draw or PAOK

69%

Winning margin

Levadiakos wins by 2+

13%

PAOK wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Levadiakos 1+ goals

70%

Levadiakos 2+ goals

34%

Levadiakos 3+ goals

12%

PAOK 1+ goals

78%

PAOK 2+ goals

44%

PAOK 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Levadiakos (draw refunded)

41%

PAOK (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levadiakos at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.28 · 64 matches

PAOK away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.03 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levadiakos attack 1.41 + PAOK defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.22

PAOK attack 1.72 + Levadiakos defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Levadiakos scores more

31%

level

25%

PAOK scores more

44%

PAOK at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "PAOK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

T. Murg

PAOK · M

7.9

Match Events

29'

Jonny Otto

32'

Guillermo Balzi

41'

Jonathan Gómez

46'

Vieirinha← Jonny

53'

G. Gianniotas← Zine

60'

M. Camara← T. Bakayoko

60'

63'

64'

65'

67'

68'

Enis ÇokajPenalty confirmed

70'

Guillermo BalziMissed penalty

72'

Giannis Gianniotas

72'

G. Konstantelias← T. Murg

72'

K. Despodov← A. Živković

79'

Ioannis Kosti

86'

M. Camara↳ Vieirinha

88'

Kyriakos Papadopoulos

88'

89'

89'

90+2'

90+1'

Giannis KonstanteliasPenalty confirmed

90+2'

S. SchwabPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LevadiakosPAOK

Overview

36%Possession64%

9Total Shots10

3Corners3

10Fouls17

Shots

9Total Shots10

0On Target3

8Off Target3

1Blocked4

5Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

36%Possession64%

272Total Passes494

180Accurate Passes402

66%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls17

5Yellow Cards5

Match Recap: Levadiakos vs PAOK

PAOK beat Levadiakos 2-0 in Super League 1 on October 6, 2024.

Goals: M. Camara (86'), S. Schwab (90+2' pen).

PAOK controlled possession (64%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Levadias in Levadia.

Levadiakos vs PAOK — Super League 1 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Levadiakos vs PAOK