Levadiakos 1–4 Panathinaikos: Result & Stats

Levadiakos

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Panathinaikos

F. Pedrozo 61'

G. Kyriakopoulos 70'

S. Kontouris 50'

A. Bakasetas 45' (pen)

J. Hernandez 37'

3/8/2026

Super League 1 · Round 24Levadia Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Levadiakos39%

×Draw23%

Panathinaikos38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LevadiakosExpected goals in this matchPanathinaikos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.63

Levadiakos

1.64

Panathinaikos

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

2.06

creates per match

1.37

1.89

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Levadiakos

2.06

Panathinaikos

1.37

allows per match

Levadiakos

1.89

Panathinaikos

1.21

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Levadiakos-0.23scores less

Panathinaikos+0.06on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levadiakos ↓

Panathinaikos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Levadiakos or draw

62%

Levadiakos or Panathinaikos

77%

Draw or Panathinaikos

61%

Winning margin

Levadiakos wins by 2+

19%

Panathinaikos wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Levadiakos 1+ goals

81%

Levadiakos 2+ goals

49%

Levadiakos 3+ goals

23%

Panathinaikos 1+ goals

80%

Panathinaikos 2+ goals

48%

Panathinaikos 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Levadiakos (draw refunded)

50%

Panathinaikos (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levadiakos at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.89 · 6 matches

Panathinaikos away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.21 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levadiakos attack 2.06 + Panathinaikos defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.64

Panathinaikos attack 1.37 + Levadiakos defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Levadiakos scores more

39%

level

23%

Panathinaikos scores more

38%

Levadiakos at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Levadiakos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

G. Kyriakopoulos

Panathinaikos · M

7.9

Match Events

25'

Sebastián Palacios

33'

Sotiris Kontouris

37'

J. Hernandez↳ V. Taborda

45+1'

Andreas TettehPenalty confirmed

45'

A. BakasetasPenalty

50'

S. Kontouris↳ A. Tetteh

54'

59'

61'

65'

66'

M. Sissoko← S. Kontouris

66'

F. Pellistri← V. Taborda

66'

S. Andino← A. Zaroury

70'

G. Kyriakopoulos↳ F. Pellistri

75'

P. Symelidis← G. Balzi

75'

H. Layous← A. Ozbolt

75'

K. Swiderski← A. Tetteh

84'

A. Gnezda Cerin← A. Bakasetas

87'

G. Manthatis← T. Tsapras

87'

G. Nikas← E. Cokaj

88'

Karol Świderski

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LevadiakosPanathinaikos

Overview

63%Possession37%

8Total Shots14

1.05Expected Goals (xG)2.95

3Corners3

14Fouls20

Shots

8Total Shots14

2On Target8

4Off Target4

2Blocked2

8Inside Box10

0Outside Box4

Passing

63%Possession37%

518Total Passes292

446Accurate Passes218

86%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

-0.59Goals Prevented-0.59

Discipline

14Fouls20

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1