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Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos — Super League 1 2018

Levadiakos
Levadiakos
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Panathinaikos
Panathinaikos
F. Ioannidis 60'
12/15/2024Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 15Stadio Levadias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Levadiakos39%
×Draw23%
Panathinaikos38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levadiakos
1.64
Panathinaikos
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Levadiakos
2.06
Panathinaikos
1.37

allows per match

Levadiakos
1.89
Panathinaikos
1.21

finishing

Levadiakos-0.23scores less
Panathinaikos+0.06on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levadiakos ↓

Panathinaikos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Levadiakos or draw
62%
Levadiakos or Panathinaikos
77%
Draw or Panathinaikos
61%

Winning margin

Levadiakos wins by 2+
19%
Panathinaikos wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Levadiakos 1+ goals
81%
Levadiakos 2+ goals
49%
Levadiakos 3+ goals
23%
Panathinaikos 1+ goals
80%
Panathinaikos 2+ goals
48%
Panathinaikos 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Levadiakos (draw refunded)
50%
Panathinaikos (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levadiakos at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.89 · 6 matches

Panathinaikos away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.21 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levadiakos attack 2.06 + Panathinaikos defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.64

Panathinaikos attack 1.37 + Levadiakos defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Levadiakos scores more
39%
level
23%
Panathinaikos scores more
38%

Levadiakos at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Levadiakos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
T. BakasetasPanathinaikosPanathinaikos · M
8.2

Match Events

34'
Rodrigo Erramuspe
53'
G. Katris← R. Erramuspe
53'
G. Gianniotas← A. Ožbolt
54'
K. Plegas← A. Mejía
55'
Filip Mladenović
60'
F. Ioannidis↳ T. Bakasetas
63'
F. Đuričić← F. Pellistri
63'
P. Max← F. Mladenović
72'
Fabricio Pedrozo
76'
K. Yoke← M. Moreira
79'
D. Limnios← D. Mancini
79'
N. Maksimović← A. Ounahi
86'
J. Romo← I. Kosti
87'
A. Jeremejeff← F. Ioannidis

Possession

49%Levadiakos

Shots

5Levadiakos

Pass accuracy

49%Levadiakos

Statistics

LevadiakosPanathinaikos
Overview
49%Possession51%
5Total Shots15
1Corners11
16Fouls15
Shots
5Total Shots15
2On Target5
1Off Target7
2Blocked3
1Inside Box10
4Outside Box5
Passing
49%Possession51%
400Total Passes417
313Accurate Passes334
78%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls15
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos

Panathinaikos beat Levadiakos 1-0 in Super League 1 on December 15, 2024.

Goals: F. Ioannidis (60').

Panathinaikos controlled possession (51%) and registered 15 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stadio Levadias in Levadia.