Levadiakos 1–2 Atromitos: Result & Stats

Levadiakos

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Atromitos

M. Vichos 23'

N. Athanasiou 83' (pen)

G. Tzovaras 13'

3/2/2025

Super League 1 · Round 25Stadio Levadias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Levadiakos42%

×Draw22%

Atromitos35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LevadiakosExpected goals in this matchAtromitos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.65

Levadiakos

1.83

Atromitos

1.65

Levadiakos creates 11% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

2.06

creates per match

1.40

1.89

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Levadiakos

2.06

Atromitos

1.40

allows per match

Levadiakos

1.89

Atromitos

1.60

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

Levadiakos-0.23scores less

Atromitos+0.31scores more

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levadiakos ↓

Atromitos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Levadiakos or draw

65%

Levadiakos or Atromitos

78%

Draw or Atromitos

58%

Winning margin

Levadiakos wins by 2+

23%

Atromitos wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Levadiakos 1+ goals

84%

Levadiakos 2+ goals

54%

Levadiakos 3+ goals

28%

Atromitos 1+ goals

81%

Atromitos 2+ goals

49%

Atromitos 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Levadiakos (draw refunded)

55%

Atromitos (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levadiakos at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.89 · 6 matches

Atromitos away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levadiakos attack 2.06 + Atromitos defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.83

Atromitos attack 1.40 + Levadiakos defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Levadiakos scores more

42%

level

22%

Atromitos scores more

35%

Levadiakos at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Levadiakos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

N. Athanasiou

Atromitos · D

8.2

Match Events

9'

Quini

13'

G. Tzovaras↳ N. Athanasiou

17'

23'

25'

57'

61'

P. Simelidis← G. Balzi

61'

F. Pedrozo← J. Romo

66'

Panagiotis LiagasGoal cancelled

67'

P. Michorl← M. Baku

67'

Amr Warda← G. Tzovaras

76'

T. van Weert← D. Jubitana

77'

A. Avraham← I. Kosti

78'

P. Kassos← J. Abu Hanna

80'

Amr WardaPenalty confirmed

83'

N. AthanasiouPenalty

86'

B. Verbič← T. Tsapras

90+7'

Peter Michorl

90+7'

Lefteris Choutesiotis

90+4'

M. Mountes← T. Tsingaras

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LevadiakosAtromitos

Overview

66%Possession34%

12Total Shots7

7Corners2

13Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots7

4On Target3

4Off Target3

4Blocked1

8Inside Box7

4Outside Box0

Passing

66%Possession34%

434Total Passes220

330Accurate Passes133

76%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls16

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2