Atromitos 2–1 Levadiakos: Result & Stats

Atromitos

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Levadiakos

T. van Weert 88'

Carlitos 54'

Zine 5'

11/25/2024

Super League 1 · Round 12Stadio Peristeriou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Atromitos48%

×Draw27%

Levadiakos25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtromitosExpected goals in this matchLevadiakos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.93

Atromitos

1.42

Levadiakos

0.93

Atromitos creates 53% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.38

creates per match

0.90

0.96

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Atromitos

1.38

Levadiakos

0.90

allows per match

Atromitos

0.96

Levadiakos

1.46

+0.75scores more than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Atromitos+0.75scores more

Levadiakos-0.19scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atromitos ↓

Levadiakos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atromitos or draw

75%

Atromitos or Levadiakos

73%

Draw or Levadiakos

52%

Winning margin

Atromitos wins by 2+

24%

Levadiakos wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atromitos 1+ goals

76%

Atromitos 2+ goals

41%

Atromitos 3+ goals

17%

Levadiakos 1+ goals

61%

Levadiakos 2+ goals

24%

Levadiakos 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Atromitos (draw refunded)

66%

Levadiakos (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atromitos at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.96 · 8 matches

Levadiakos away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.46 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atromitos attack 1.38 + Levadiakos defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.42

Levadiakos attack 0.90 + Atromitos defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atromitos scores more

48%

level

27%

Levadiakos scores more

25%

Atromitos at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atromitos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

T. van Weert

Atromitos · F

7.6

Match Events

5'

Zine↳ T. Tsapras

20'

Panagiotis Symelidis

33'

Zini

46'

N. Athanasiou← P. Michorl

46'

Eder González← M. Mountes

46'

Amr Warda← T. Tsingaras

54'

Carlitos↳ Amr Warda

66'

Enis Çokaj

68'

G. Gianniotas← A. Ožbolt

74'

T. Karamanis← D. Jubitana

77'

T. van Weert← Carlitos

77'

A. Mejía← I. Kosti

81'

Dimitrios Stavropoulos

85'

F. Pedrozo← P. Simelidis

86'

J. Romo← Zine

88'

T. van Weert↳ N. Athanasiou

90+4'

Maximiliano Moreira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtromitosLevadiakos

Overview

57%Possession43%

8Total Shots11

4Corners6

9Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots11

5On Target4

1Off Target4

2Blocked3

6Inside Box6

2Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

506Total Passes389

402Accurate Passes304

79%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls13

1Yellow Cards4

3Offsides2