Les Astres 1–0 Jeunes Fauves: Result & Stats

Les Astres

FT

1 – 0

Jeunes Fauves

4/5/2022

Elite One · Round 7Stade de la Réunification

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Les Astres50%

×Draw25%

Jeunes Fauves25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Les AstresExpected goals in this matchJeunes Fauves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.02

Les Astres

1.56

Jeunes Fauves

1.02

Les Astres creates 53% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 47 away

1.31

creates per match

0.98

1.06

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Les Astres

1.31

Jeunes Fauves

0.98

allows per match

Les Astres

1.06

Jeunes Fauves

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Les Astres+0.00on par

Jeunes Fauves+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Les Astres ↓

Jeunes Fauves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Les Astres or draw

75%

Les Astres or Jeunes Fauves

75%

Draw or Jeunes Fauves

50%

Winning margin

Les Astres wins by 2+

26%

Jeunes Fauves wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Les Astres 1+ goals

79%

Les Astres 2+ goals

46%

Les Astres 3+ goals

21%

Jeunes Fauves 1+ goals

64%

Jeunes Fauves 2+ goals

27%

Jeunes Fauves 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Les Astres (draw refunded)

67%

Jeunes Fauves (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Les Astres at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 72 matches

Jeunes Fauves away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.81 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Les Astres attack 1.31 + Jeunes Fauves defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.56

Jeunes Fauves attack 0.98 + Les Astres defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Les Astres scores more

50%

level

25%

Jeunes Fauves scores more

25%

Les Astres at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Les Astres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff