Jeunes Fauves 3–1 Les Astres: Result & Stats

Jeunes Fauves

FT

3 – 1

Les Astres

11/2/2022

Elite One · Round 4Stade Olembe Annexe B

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Jeunes Fauves37%

×Draw28%

Les Astres35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeunes FauvesExpected goals in this matchLes Astres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.15

Jeunes Fauves

1.20

Les Astres

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 75 away

1.08

creates per match

1.03

1.27

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Jeunes Fauves

1.08

Les Astres

1.03

allows per match

Jeunes Fauves

1.27

Les Astres

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeunes Fauves+0.00on par

Les Astres+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunes Fauves ↓

Les Astres →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Jeunes Fauves or draw

65%

Jeunes Fauves or Les Astres

72%

Draw or Les Astres

63%

Winning margin

Jeunes Fauves wins by 2+

16%

Les Astres wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Jeunes Fauves 1+ goals

70%

Jeunes Fauves 2+ goals

34%

Jeunes Fauves 3+ goals

12%

Les Astres 1+ goals

68%

Les Astres 2+ goals

32%

Les Astres 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Jeunes Fauves (draw refunded)

52%

Les Astres (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeunes Fauves at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

Les Astres away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.31 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeunes Fauves attack 1.08 + Les Astres defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Les Astres attack 1.03 + Jeunes Fauves defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Jeunes Fauves scores more

37%

level

28%

Les Astres scores more

35%

Jeunes Fauves at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Jeunes Fauves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff