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Les Astres vs Foncha ST — Elite Two 2020

Les Astres
Les Astres
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Foncha ST
Foncha ST
5/1/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Les Astres44%
×Draw24%
Foncha ST33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Les Astres
1.67
Foncha ST
1.41

Les Astres creates 18% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 50 away

creates per match

Les Astres
1.22
Foncha ST
1.04

allows per match

Les Astres
1.78
Foncha ST
2.12

finishing

Les Astres+0.00on par
Foncha ST+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Les Astres ↓

Foncha ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Les Astres or draw
67%
Les Astres or Foncha ST
76%
Draw or Foncha ST
56%

Winning margin

Les Astres wins by 2+
23%
Foncha ST wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Les Astres 1+ goals
81%
Les Astres 2+ goals
50%
Les Astres 3+ goals
23%
Foncha ST 1+ goals
76%
Foncha ST 2+ goals
41%
Foncha ST 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Les Astres (draw refunded)
57%
Foncha ST (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Les Astres at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Foncha ST away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.12 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Les Astres attack 1.22 + Foncha ST defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.67

Foncha ST attack 1.04 + Les Astres defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Les Astres scores more
44%
level
24%
Foncha ST scores more
33%

Les Astres at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Les Astres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Les Astres 2–1 Foncha ST

Les Astres beat Foncha ST 2-1 in Elite Two on May 1, 2026.