Foncha ST 1–2 Les Astres: Result & Stats

Foncha ST

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Les Astres

2/18/2026

Elite Two · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Foncha ST33%

×Draw26%

Les Astres41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Foncha STExpected goals in this matchLes Astres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.43

Foncha ST

1.27

Les Astres

1.43

Les Astres creates 13% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 10 away

1.35

creates per match

1.80

1.06

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Foncha ST

1.35

Les Astres

1.80

allows per match

Foncha ST

1.06

Les Astres

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Foncha ST+0.00on par

Les Astres+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foncha ST ↓

Les Astres →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Foncha ST or draw

59%

Foncha ST or Les Astres

74%

Draw or Les Astres

67%

Winning margin

Foncha ST wins by 2+

14%

Les Astres wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Foncha ST 1+ goals

72%

Foncha ST 2+ goals

36%

Foncha ST 3+ goals

14%

Les Astres 1+ goals

76%

Les Astres 2+ goals

42%

Les Astres 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Foncha ST (draw refunded)

45%

Les Astres (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foncha ST at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.06 · 49 matches

Les Astres away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foncha ST attack 1.35 + Les Astres defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Les Astres attack 1.80 + Foncha ST defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Foncha ST scores more

33%

level

26%

Les Astres scores more

41%

Les Astres at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Les Astres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff