Les Astres 1–0 Fauve Azur Elite: Result & Stats

Les Astres

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fauve Azur Elite

5/25/2025

Elite One · Round 25Stade de Bonamoussadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Les Astres44%

×Draw30%

Fauve Azur Elite26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Les AstresExpected goals in this matchFauve Azur Elite

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.83

Les Astres

1.19

Fauve Azur Elite

0.83

Les Astres creates 43% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 15 away

1.31

creates per match

0.60

1.06

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Les Astres

1.31

Fauve Azur Elite

0.60

allows per match

Les Astres

1.06

Fauve Azur Elite

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Les Astres+0.00on par

Fauve Azur Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Les Astres ↓

Fauve Azur Elite →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Les Astres or draw

74%

Les Astres or Fauve Azur Elite

70%

Draw or Fauve Azur Elite

56%

Winning margin

Les Astres wins by 2+

19%

Fauve Azur Elite wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Les Astres 1+ goals

70%

Les Astres 2+ goals

33%

Les Astres 3+ goals

12%

Fauve Azur Elite 1+ goals

56%

Fauve Azur Elite 2+ goals

20%

Fauve Azur Elite 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Les Astres (draw refunded)

63%

Fauve Azur Elite (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Les Astres at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 72 matches

Fauve Azur Elite away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Les Astres attack 1.31 + Fauve Azur Elite defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.19

Fauve Azur Elite attack 0.60 + Les Astres defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Les Astres scores more

44%

level

30%

Fauve Azur Elite scores more

26%

Les Astres at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Les Astres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff