Fauve Azur Elite 1–0 Les Astres: Result & Stats

Fauve Azur Elite

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Les Astres

2/2/2025

Elite One · Round 10Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fauve Azur Elite47%

×Draw28%

Les Astres25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fauve Azur EliteExpected goals in this matchLes Astres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.88

Fauve Azur Elite

1.32

Les Astres

0.88

Fauve Azur Elite creates 50% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 75 away

1.33

creates per match

1.03

0.73

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Fauve Azur Elite

1.33

Les Astres

1.03

allows per match

Fauve Azur Elite

0.73

Les Astres

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fauve Azur Elite+0.00on par

Les Astres+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fauve Azur Elite ↓

Les Astres →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Fauve Azur Elite or draw

75%

Fauve Azur Elite or Les Astres

72%

Draw or Les Astres

53%

Winning margin

Fauve Azur Elite wins by 2+

22%

Les Astres wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Fauve Azur Elite 1+ goals

73%

Fauve Azur Elite 2+ goals

38%

Fauve Azur Elite 3+ goals

15%

Les Astres 1+ goals

59%

Les Astres 2+ goals

22%

Les Astres 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Fauve Azur Elite (draw refunded)

65%

Les Astres (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fauve Azur Elite at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Les Astres away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.31 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fauve Azur Elite attack 1.33 + Les Astres defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.32

Les Astres attack 1.03 + Fauve Azur Elite defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fauve Azur Elite scores more

47%

level

28%

Les Astres scores more

25%

Fauve Azur Elite at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fauve Azur Elite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff